THE FINAL COUNTDOWN - Week 12 Recap & Week 13 Rankings

So we've arrived. It's officially Decision Day in the Oltman League, and a number of teams are waiting to see if they're going to battle it out in the Oltman tournament, or face a possible syrupy demise in the Waffle tournament. As it stands today:

-Drayer, Benjamin, and myself have booked a ticket to the big show. All that's left is to determine who receives first-round byes. For Drayer and me, win and we're in. For Ben, he needs to beat Colby and have me lose to Broullire and he'll slot into second place and earn a bye.

-For Neil, best I can tell, he has also booked his ticket even though FantasyPros still only gives him a 92% chance of making it. To have a chance at missing it, he'd need to lose to Collin, have Colby, Jim, and Brooks all win, and then somehow get the shit end of a 4-way tie. According to Brooks' superior intellect, Brooks would be the odd man out in that scenario, not Neil, so I'm not positive where that 8% of doubt comes from in FantasyPros' calculations.

-Here's where things get interesting. Colby, Jim, and Brooks all sit at 6-6. One of these dudes is getting left out in the cold. Here are the scenarios:
-If just one of them loses, that fella's out.
-If Jim wins and Colby and Brooks lose, Colby's out.
-If Colby wins and Jim and Brooks both lose, Brooks is out.
-If Brooks wins and Colby and Jim both lose, Jim is out.
-If all three win, I believe Brooks is out because Colby would win the 3-way tie due to Points For, and then Jim owns the head-to-head matchup with him and Brooks.
(this is absolutely worth redesigning in the offseason.)
So that you can wager appropriately on these outcomes . . .
-Brooks is currently a 23.6 point favorite over Wes
-Colby should wind up as a 18.7 point favorite over Ben once he sets his lineup
-Jim is a 9.3 point dog to Drayer

It's 2020, anything can happen!! I know I'll be glued to these three matchups over the weekend, and I hope that there's some fun shittalking in the group text (minus Brooks who continues his boycott of all things fun in the Oltman.)

Speaking of Brooks... I did NOT foresee that stat correction whatsoever. If I had, I wouldn't have posted that whole Donald Trump speech last week. Honestly, this is like the Trump campaign actually overturning results in Georgia or Wisconsin.... Totally unexpected. But thems the breaks. I've piled on a bit too heavily on this whole Taysom Hill thing already, so I certainly won't be mentioning that if Brooks had only played Taysom Hill as an actual QB instead of a TE in Week 11, he would've beaten me handily....

Finally, the Waffle Tourney. Not much Decision Day drama to be had down here, as Broullire, Stephen, Wes, Collin, and Mike have all punched their ticket toward certain doom. The only drama worth watching here is who will join Mike in the cellar and have to win twice to escape the Waffle Bowl? It will most likely come down to whether or not Wes or Collin can pull off a win this week. I think there might be some convoluted ways that MB or Stephen could wind up in the cellar (maybe?) but tbh I'm not going to spend too much time working those out. Still - - worth monitoring for sure!

As for last weeks' matchups, not sure that there was enough drama to go game-by-game but I do want to dedicate a special part of this note to Mr. Collin Hopf. Oh Collin. You faced a very beatable Jim, who scored a Mike-score in the 80's, and what did you decide to do? You decided to post one of the Top(low?) 10 scores of all time with a whopping 45.91 points. I decided to compose a limerick for you:
There once was a young lad named Collin,
Who used to think that his team was ballin'
Til he totally shat the bed
He's been left for dead
Now for waffles, he'll face Mike who's pp is smallin'

This is it, gentlemen and Wes. Week 13 separates the men from the boys. The butters from the cheesedicks. Good luck!!

Go Dawgs, Go Tortilla Fight Boiz, Go America!
-The Commish

Onto the final regular season rankings!

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Playoff Rankings - Week Thirteen
(remember that this is looking at your schedule and estimating 1) final rank, 2) final record, 3) odds of making the playoffs. 4) odds of becoming champion. This will change every week (mostly.)

1(+0) Premature Venmolation 9-3 10-3 100% 32%
2(+0) The Tortilla Fight Boiz 9-3 10-3 100% 25%
3(+1) Cancel 2020 8-4 8-5 100% 7%
4(+2) Blackout BTK's Booty Shorts 7-5 7-6 92% 7%
5(-2) COVID Jesus 6-6 7-6 89% 12%
6(-1) Taysom Hill is the #1 TE 6-6 7-6 78% 11%
- - - - - - - - - - - Playoff Line - - - - - - - - - - -
7(+0) Collins Got Pussy Boy Tires 6-6 6-7 38% 4%
8(+0) Marginal Fucks Given 5-7 5-8 3% <1%
9(+0) My Name's Not Adam Schifter 5-7 5-8 <1% <1%
10(+0) mike lil pp 4-8 5-8 0% 0%
11(+0) Fuck Me Until You Love Me 4-8 4-9 0% 0%
12(+0) 3 Cup Beer Pong PTSD 3-9 4-9 0% 0%